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He wanted my pitch on Egypt in 30 seconds or less. Both want control over the masses — 85 million Egyptians. Whether the military or the mosque wins the runoff this weekend, reformers and their supporters around the world need to consider some equally important potential futures scenarios.
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Morsi and Shafiq are doppelgangers: Both are ghosts of the past, circling each other, embedded in the old system that has defined and sustained them for decades.
Of course, the man from the military and the man from the mosque each claim to be the true champion of the revolution.
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You may be asking: How can it not matter? While the mosque in the form of the Muslim Brotherhood and the military in the form of the ruling Supreme Council of the Armed Forces stand triumphant, each risks losing its grip on political power.
Both will inevitably be the victims of true political transformation and swept away, as Brinton would say, through the course of events.
There are signs now that this could happen and, not surprisingly, both Morsi and Shafiq know it. As the vote went ahead as planned, the Brotherhood won nearly half the seats, while allowing the SCAF to retain ultimate power — a deal that served the short-term interests of both sides.
Whoever the next president is, the economic challenges that confront him — ranging from chronic unemployment to ailing foreign credit — are urgent. Tourism has cratered. Finally, the relationships between the legislative assembly, the presidency, and the executive have yet to be defined.
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The parliament has historically been little more than a rubber stamp for regime policies and, even as Egyptians go to the polls to select a new president, it is a mystery what powers that figure will possess. A relatively emasculated presidency with little real capacity to enforce policy changes remains a distinct possibility.
Genuine redistribution of political power will require a dramatic upheaval of these entrenched systems. As political theorist Gene Sharp warns in his treatise From Dictatorship to Democracy : "Nowhere … do I assume that defying dictators will be an easy or cost-free endeavor. All forms of struggle have complications and costs.
In Egypt, these casualties would not only include the hundreds of young men dead on the streets, but also the destruction of arrangements that favored certain sections of Egyptian society and provided the foundation for its political order. Once again, Brinton offers guidance for how to think of this process by conceiving of revolutions in terms of stages: In his model, Egypt has traversed the first stage — the collapse of the regime — and begun stage two, epitomized by an ineffective, moderate interim government that fails to deliver sufficient political change.
Depending on how you apply this framework to the Egyptian setting, this second stage may equate to either the interim SCAF or some kind of "inclusive" — i.
Again, whether this administration is led by Morsi or Shafiq makes little difference in the long run. The failure of the moderates will bring about stage three: the wholesale disintegration of a measured transition process, leading to widespread political confusion, major clashes, and the beginnings of violence verging on anarchy. Stage four ushers in the radical, purging, period — terrifying for its uncompromising zeal and tyranny.
Indeed, the Salafists and other more extreme religious groups are conspicuously absent from the current clash of the mainstream factions — particularly considering their astonishing election performance that gave them 25 percent of parliament..
They are, quite obviously, patiently awaiting the weakening of the military and the mosque, which are just now in the process of weakening each other — as the contending moderate parties in revolutionary France and Russia weakened each other — paving the way for the extremists.
Of course, this kind of framework is often dismissed as the mindless wanderings of historical structuralists. Egypt is neither Russia nor France.
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It will be decided in the streets, as all revolutions are. Trending Now Sponsored Links by Taboola.
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